War, Performance, and the Survival of Foreign Ministers

Abstract Why do some foreign ministers stay longer in office than others? Are they punished when the country loses a war? Several scholars have focused on tenure of leaders as an important predictor policy outcomes, such war onset, creating interest leadership survival. We here shift focus to survival other politicians cabinet—foreign ministers, hypothesizing that their depends performance office. For example, we expect experiences armed conflict resulting win or compromise agreement. evaluate and find support for several our hypotheses using original historical dataset, which comprises all world's thirteen great powers from early modern period present, covering about 1,100 minister-terms